If you find that
your horse is lame, it would be difficult to prove which of the many
possible causes actually operated to produce the lameness, though the
attendant circumstances might point to some one cause and so lead you to
assume that it was the one.
Under _arguments from sign_ should be included also those cases when we
pass directly from one effect to another that arises from the same cause;
as, "I hear the windmill turning, it will be a good day to sail;" or,
"These beans are thrifty, therefore if I plant potatoes here I shall get a
good crop." In these sentences the wind and the fertile soil are not
mentioned, but we pass directly from one effect to another.
As used by rhetoricians, arguments from sign include also arguments from
attendant circumstances. If we have observed that two events have happened
near together in time, we accept the occurrence of one as a sign that the
other will follow. When we hear the factory whistle blow, we conclude that
in a few minutes the workmen will pass our window on their way home. Such
a conclusion is based upon a belief established by an inductive process.
The degree of probability that it gives depends upon the number of times
that it has been observed to act without failure. If we have seen two boys
frequently together, the presence of one is a sign of the probable
presence of the other. A camp fire would point to the recent presence of
some one who kindled it.
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