Our
arguments may therefore be directed to proving possibility, probability,
or actuality.
If we believe that an event actually occurred, the belief implies both
possibility and probability. Therefore, if we wish a person to believe in
the actual occurrence of an event, we must first be sure that he does not
question the possibility of its existence, and then we must show him that
it probably did take place. Only when we have shown that an event is
extremely probable have we the right to say that we have shown its actual
occurrence.
A mother finding some damage done to one of the pictures on the wall could
not justly accuse her young son unless by the presence of a chair or
stepladder it had been possible for him to reach the picture. This
possibility, reenforced by a knowledge of his tendency to mischief, and by
the fact that he was in the house at the time the damage was done, would
lead to the belief that he probably was guilty. Proof that he was actually
responsible for the damage would still be lacking, and it might later be
discovered that the injury had been done accidentally by one of the
servants.
Possibility, probability, and actuality merge into one another so
gradually that no sharply defined distinctions can be observed. It is
impossible to say that a certain argument establishes possibility, another
probability, and a third the actuality of an event. One statement may do
all three, but any proof of actuality must include arguments showing both
possibility and probability.
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