+Theme CII.+--_Write a short argument, using one of the following:_--
1. A young boy is urging his father to permit him to attend an
entertainment. Give his reasons as he would give them to his father.
2. Suppose the father refuses the request. Write out his reasons.
3. Try to convince a companion just entering high school to take the
college preparatory course instead of the commercial course.
(Are your reasons true and pertinent? To what general theories have you
appealed? Consider the coherence of each paragraph.)
+187. Arrangement of Arguments.+--We have learned that in arguing we need
to consider how those whom we address arrive at the belief they hold, and
that it will assist us to this knowledge of others if we consider our own
beliefs and the manner of their establishing. We must present our material
in the order that convinces. Each case may differ so from every other that
no general rule can be followed, but the consideration of some general
principles of arrangement will be of assistance. It is the purpose of the
following paragraphs to point out in so far as possible the most effective
order of arrangement.
+188. Possibility, Probability, and Actuality.+--It has been stated, in
Section 175, that reasoning leads to probable truth, and that this
probability may become so strong as to be accepted as certainty. In common
speech this difference is borne in mind, and we distinguish a fact or
event that is only possible from one that is probable; and likewise one
that is only probable from one in which the probability approaches so near
to certainty as to convince us that it actually did exist or occur.
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