If you ask yourself the question, What leads me to believe as
I do? the answer will undoubtedly be effective in convincing others.
Are the following propositions true or false? Why do
you believe or refuse to believe each?
1. Maple trees shed their leaves in winter.
2. Dogs bark.
3. Kettles are made of iron.
4. Grasshoppers jump.
5. Giraffes have long necks.
6. Raccoons sleep in the daytime.
7. The sun will rise to-morrow.
8. Examinations are not fair tests of a pupil's knowledge.
9. Honest people are respected.
10. Water freezes at 32 deg. Fahrenheit.
11. Boys get higher standings in mathematics than girls do.
It is at once evident that we believe a proposition such as one of
these, because we have known of many examples. If we reject any of the
propositions it is because we know of exceptions (we have seen kettles not
made of iron), or because we do not know of instances (we may never have
seen a raccoon, and so not know what he does in the daytime). The greater
the number of cases which have occurred without presenting an exception,
the stronger our belief in the truth of the proposition (we expect the sun
to rise because it has never failed).
The process by which, from many individual cases, we establish the truth
of a proposition is called +inductive reasoning+.
+175. Establishing a General Theory.+--A general theory is established by
showing that for all known particular cases it will offer an acceptable
explanation.
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